well if you wanna be really technical you have to factor in weight difference then how the auto is shifting. beat autos can be dogs, but nice, tuned ones can be demons
I think it would still be a drivers race. A good stick driver could pull that one out all day. To really equal the odds you would need a torque converter and shift kit.
I don't buy into the percentage of drivetrain loss. Think of it this way. If it takes 35hp to spin the drivetrain on a 260hp, why would it take 70hp to spin the exact same drive train on a 520hp engine?