GT500 value

Discussion in '2007 - 2014 Shelby GT500 Tech' started by steemin, Sep 27, 2006.

  1. steemin

    steemin Member

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    I am interested in hearing peoples opinions in regards to what one might expect to pay for a used 07 GT500 coupe with less than 10,000 miles in 2-3 years?
    Scott
     
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  2. LuS1fer

    LuS1fer New Member

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    Would that be when the Camaro and Challenger are on the market or before?
     
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  3. steemin

    steemin Member

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    For the sake of discussion lets have your take before and after..
    We do have to make some assumptions regarding the Camaro and the Challenger. My understanding is that Powertrain options,weight and cost
    (just to name a few) have not been set in stone at this point
    What impact do you think this will have?
    Scott
    p.s. I edited my original post. I meant to add that I am thinking about a used car that is 2-3 years old
     
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  4. roboto1720

    roboto1720 New Member

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    I'm guessing in the $30,000 range. SVT vehicles hold their value well. If the Shelby were registered in the Shelby corp. registry it could be maybe in the upper $30,000 range. I haven't had one person who can say for sure that the GT500 is even registered through the Carroll Shelby corp.If not it's just an SVT mustang. Still a very well built car. I also think that the production numbers will play a part in determining the value of a use Shelby GT500.But I'm sure RICKS will prove me wrong.
     
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  5. LV51FER

    LV51FER New Member

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    If it was the only car out there, I'm sure the values will remain high but I suspect there are thousands of Mustang owners who have bought one because GM stopped making the F-car and who will return to the Camaro when it arrives. I'd put myself into that category but a lot will depend on engine options and I don't have a GT500 to sell. An LS7 Camaro would make a big impact.

    For my money, I wouldn't buy a GT500 anyway but there will be plenty of people waiting to snap them up when the premium culture subsides. It may be that those who paid the premium won't want to take a stiff shafting so may keep the cars so non-availability may keep prices high.

    That said, those who bought a GT500 to be first on the block are possibly the same people who will want to be first on the block with a Challenger or a Camaro so the market could easily become saturated and prices could fall. You'll also have a restyled Mustang in 2008 which may be so drop dead gorgeous that this Shelby becomes last years model really quick. The acid test will be whether the GT500 finds it's own niche as a performance car or as this year's fashion accessory.
     
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  6. steemin

    steemin Member

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    I agree that the other entries in the "musclecar" marketplace will affect
    the value of the GT500's.
    My understanding is that Ford is going to produce 7,000-10,000 GT500's in 2007 and 2008 and then 2009 is the targeted year for the makeover.
    I have seen some of the preliminary drawings of the 09 and it unfortunately looks very similar to the 09 Camaro :nono:
    Scott
     
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  7. RICKS

    RICKS New Member

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    Naw, I agree with you, although the initial question was a bit vague, as there's alot of "swing" between a 9,999 mile used car, and an ultra-ultra-low-mile never been in the rain show-queen that may still be in the wrapper, or if not, is still uber-fresh and detailed with less than 500 miles on the clock. On just a nice, not hurt, still almost-new 3,000-10,000 miler, I think the $28K-$33K range is a safe prediction. I can't foresee high 30's, registry or not, just because there will be so damn many produced.

    And I think the used car market will be FULL of them, as all the gold-chain ego-slaves will be dumping them helter-skelter, as they move on to another "it" car in that endless and desparate clamor for attention and self-gratification. And many of the "regular-Joe" people will be selling as well, as it's human nature to get a "toy" or "fun" car like the Shelby, have fun with it, get used to it, and then you can tend to get bored, and some other supermodel woos you into another dealer showroom, and you get smitten, and up goes the for-sale sign.

    I predict in 2-3 years, you'll be able to do a 200-mile-radius search on Traderonline and you can practically choose your colors and options with all the used GT500's available. :)
     
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  8. srothfuss

    srothfuss Last night I stabbed the same guy 7 times in a row

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    Current estimate on the price of a 10,000 mile 2007 GT500 (in late 2007) will be 45K used. Not because the values of the car are so high, but because some people paid too much for them in the begining.


    Current estimate on the price of a 10,000 mile 2008 GT500 (in late 2008) will be 35-40K used. This will probably be the price most people will pay to get one. Again these are just guesses based on the current condition of the market and using the Terminators as a guide


    In late 2008 the Camaro will hit the streets with at least 350HP. I'd expect prices to START around 28K and go up very fast from there

    The Challenger will also make its debut at the same time. Assuming the curent Hemi powertrain is carried over I'd expect the prices to start around 34K and move up from that point.

    The Next Generation of the S197 should hit in August of 2009 as a 2010MY. At the moment the concpets people drew up are not that flattering.
     
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  9. RICKS

    RICKS New Member

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    I disagree with your 1st statement, as the same people who are sitting back and waiting, unwilling to pay $55K for a brand-new GT500 right now.... will be just as unwilling to pay $45K for a 10,000 mile used vehicle a year from now. Especially considering the likelihood that a year from now EVERYBODY will be able to write a deal for a brand-new GT500 from the dealer at straight MSRP. I simply do not see a demographic that exists, or an environment that exists, that fulfills your 1st forecast.

    History has shown over and over again... when the bubble bursts, it does so quickly and decisively. Once the "gotta have one now" over-payers all have a GT500 in their garage, the playing field will immediately, almost overnight, slam down to earth at MSRP for brand new examples. Maybe not now, maybe not by Christmas, but it's coming. It always does. Even the Ford GT, that swims in a market where money isn't really much of an object to the buyers, settled into MSRP after the 1st year's production elapsed.
     
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  10. srothfuss

    srothfuss Last night I stabbed the same guy 7 times in a row

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    I agree that my price guesses are pretty high for the first year, but I'm really basing my choices off of the c03/04 cobra pricing which seems to be at or just below sale prices for those cars. It might not be as high as I think, but what about the people who put down lots of money to be "that guy" with one of the first GT500's...

    And just like you wrote, that feeling is typically only good for 6 months to 1 year before the bubble really bursts.
     
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  11. steemin

    steemin Member

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    Interesting debate...
    My opinion is that I will be able to go out and buy a 2-3 year old 07 or 08
    GT500 that has less than 10,000 miles for around $30,000.
    At that price point I am interested.
    I can afford a new one.
    However it has always been difficult for me to buy a toy that will rapidly depreciate.. (not that I have not done this)
    Hence I have mostly owned older muscle cars for my "toy".
    Usually I break even or come out ahead..:D
    I wonder where the GT500's cars will bottom out?
    I am hoping that I can buy a 2 1/2 year old GT500 for $30,000.
    And that I can drive it for 3-5 years (averaging 2,000 miles/year)
    and then sell it at a relatively small loss.
    What do you think?:shrug:
    Scott
     
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  12. RICKS

    RICKS New Member

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    Depends on gas prices, the middle east, pollution politics, etc....

    Sounds like I'm getting lost in platitudes, but there's a very real question mark hovering over how much longer/further this latest horsepower renaissance can extend before government legislated fuel economy standards, or smog standards, or oil prices, or just plain old market-demand and market-trends, cause the current plethora of to-die-for muscle cars to wane a bit. Once a bit of back-slide happens, look for cars that represented the "pinnacle of performance" to be highly collectible, and all other muscle-car-type cars to gain a new nostalgia.

    Where it gets fuzzy is how the values will be affected. In the 70's, when gas got high and market desires shifted, used muscle cars had a strong and loyal following, but mostly among low-income blue-collar folks, and the values were CHEAP, ridiculously cheap. It was weird, they were "collectible", but not excessively valuable as they are today. Today, 60's muscle is plain NUTS. It's all 35-45 years old now. It just spiked skyward two years ago.

    I think if the current modern horsepower war starts to slow down and wilt away in the next several years, that it'll be a bit different, as folks will look at how nobody RECOGNIZED the future collectibility of 60's muscle during the 70's and 80's, and they'll learn from that history, and not make the same mistakes. I think, that if for some reason, cars like the GT500, and the SRT8's & SRT10's, V-spec Caddies, and the upcoming Camaros and Challengers, and all the European (AMG, M, R) nutty-powerful hotrods, wind up representing the last big bangs from the modern muscle car movement, that they'll become instantly collectible, and values will always be fairly high, never "cheap" like you could get away with in the 70's.

    However, if technology and world affairs and market demand continue to allow this horsepower war to continue building, the GT500 is doomed to be outgunned by something hotter, and then something hotter after that, and will just be another used car, like a '98 Cobra if you will, easy to find cheap, who cares that it says Shelby on it. If THAT happens, it'll take 20-30 years before it morphs into a "classic car", where it gets another chance to rise steeply in value.

    Confusing enough?
     
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  13. steemin

    steemin Member

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    I agree with your thoughts on this matter..
    IMHO regardless of the 2 scenarios you described above the GT500 will never
    have the desirability of the original 65-70 Shelby's.
    This is contrary to what many purchasers of the GT500 believe.
    One only needs to look at the production numbers of the 65-70 Shelby's to see that the new Shelby's will never be a "rare" car.
    Between 1965-1970 approx 13,800 Shelby's were produced.
    Of these cars many were beat on at the track and on the street
    (particularly the early models)
    as no one at the time really considered the cars "collectibles".
    Consequently there are very few pristine condition,unmolested,original matching numbers,low mileage examples left today.
    I am not trying to say that the GT500's will not hold their value better than
    a Mustang GT. I believe that they will drop in value (from the msrp not the dealer adjusted prices!) after the novelty wears off and the Camaro and Challenger are introduced.
    However I believe that the depreciation curve will start to flatten out after 2-3 years.

    What I am wondering is where will the depreciation on these cars bottom out?
    Of course I am talking about a low mileage well kept car.

    Scott
     
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  14. RICKS

    RICKS New Member

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    You are exactly right. The mindset today is far different than it was in the 60's and 70's, and we've learned alot from our past mistakes.

    I doubt 10 years from now you'll see a forelorn GT500 driven by some scraggly looking gal smoking a cigarette, letting the ashes just drop in the car, with 4 or 5 dirty greasy little rug rats jumping around the back seat spilling sodas everywhere, running on a space-saver, with a tail-pipe dangling from a twisted clothes hangar, sparking off the pavement every time she hits a bump.

    Most of these cars will be kept pretty nice, and the resale values will be decent, and there will always be a following. Which means that they'll never achieve crazy-high values, because there will always be enough decent cars available to saturate demand enough to keep value within reason.
     
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  15. Blueshelby

    Blueshelby New Member

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    I believe one of the magazines has listed the Shelby as the top investment car for long term growth...ie holding it for 20 years. There are those palnning on it (me as well) but the downside is availability of parts. May have to take stock for replacements.
     
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  16. steemin

    steemin Member

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    I have a friend that just paid $15,000 over for his GT500,
    He put a wall up between the 2nd and 3rd bays in his garage.
    He is going to park the car in the 3rd bay "out of sight out of mind"
    in his own words.
    His plan is to not ever drive the car/ not even get plates on the car.
    He believes that he will pull the car out in 30 years and make a killing.
    I believe that he is sadly mistaken..
    Scott
     
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  17. roboto1720

    roboto1720 New Member

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    I believe the Shelby GT will be more of a collectable car than the GT500 mainly because it's getting it's Shelby makeup at the Shelby shop not at Ford's SVT organization where the GT500 is built. If Carroll Shelby himself would sign each and every Shelby GT say on the glove compartment door or anywhere on the car it could add another $10,000 to the value someday. I'm basing this on what I see at some auctions I've been to. Also lets face it, Mr Shelby won't be here forever.(may he live to be a 100 years old) Any item with his signature on it will turn into gold someday.
     
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  18. RICKS

    RICKS New Member

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    I have alot of 1st-hand experience in collecting no-mile cars. Your friend will be LUCKY to stay ahead of the following equation:

    Currency Inflation + Insurance expense + lost investment potential (this is the difference between the average inflation percentage, and the average yield for a long-term CD or 401K, considering the reality that you could have taken the same sum of money, and just stuck it in the bank in a decent-yield long-term investment account) + storage expense (if he's not air conditioning the garage, insulating, dehumidifying, his "investment" will be close to worthless in 10 years). Very FEW cars throughout history have really ever gotten AHEAD of the real, complete, detailed hard-math.

    Let's use a good example. Buick GNX. Let's face it, it's ALOT rarer and more exclusive and more "special" than the GT500, and will always be more collectible, regardless of which car would win a drag race stock vs. stock (The GT500 would). ALSO, it's a great example because it's EXACTLY 20 years old.

    Price of a Buick GNX brand-new: $29,290

    Add 33%, which is equivalent to the mark-up that your collecting-unsavvy friend is paying for his Shelby: $9700

    Total purchase price in 1987, if you bought a Buick GNX using the same boneheaded game-plan: Roughly $38,990

    Now, let's plug that number into an inflation calculator starting at 1987, ending 2007: $69,211

    Cost of collector-car insurance (cheaper than regular car insurance) over 20 years @ $400/year average (very conservative guess): $8,000

    Cost of keeping dry and cool, utilities: I'm guessing, because I've gotta average over 20 years, but let's say $10/month average, so $2400

    O.K., let's add things up. There are other expenses that come along the way, but not worth speculating. We're right at a total of $80,000 that you'd need to sell it for, JUST TO BREAK EVEN.

    BUT WAIT, we still have one more factor to go. The difference between the inflation rate I used, and what you WOULD have made with a safe long-term account or CD. Usually, you can pull down a safe 3% over the inflation rate with a $30-40K deposit in a long-term-can't-touch-it account. So now you get to toss an addition $28,000 onto the total, representing unrealized revenue due to your having invested in a flipping car instead of putting the money out-of-sight-out-of-mind in the bank.

    $80,000 + $28,000 = $108,000

    All of the ultra-low-mile GNX's that have been advertised in Hemmings over the last 6 months have been hovering around the $100K mark, some over, some a bit under. Sounds like a crapload of money just looking at it, for a car that stickered for $29K in 1987, doesn't it?? But in reality, even the folks who bought their GNX new at MSRP aren't making that much when it's all said and done, certainly not a "killing"

    Where you're friend is just insanely deluded, and I apologize for the name calling, is that he's paying $15K OVER MSRP for a car that he plans on keeping stashed away for 20 years. Any SMART long term investor knows that it the key to getting the best yield on the investment, is to buy a car AFTER the initial frenzy has died down, so that you're not so far upside down right out of the gate. Even BETTER, is to find a "still-in-the-plastic" car 2 or 3 years after it was sold new, as alot of these supposed "collectors" are fickle, get cold feet, or just find something else they need cash to get, and they bail out, usually at a huge loss. I bought my '93 R-model with 90 miles on it for $21K when it was 3 years old, and they only made 107 (or 108?) of those suckers. The same guy was also trying to sell a no-mile ZR-1 at an ugly ugly loss. He was a Harley Davidson Dealer, I thought he would've known better, but his loss, my gain...

    In short, I've seen alot of guys like your friend. I've profited and gained tremendously off of the ill-conceived speculatings of guys like your friend.

    If he makes a "killing" in 20 years, it will only be due to Hillary Clinton being elected into office, and passing a resolution ordering the destruction of all registered GT500's due to their contribution to depleting our resources and global warming, and you're buddy and the hundred or two hundred others like him that stuffed away a GT500 will the be only ones remaining with running examples, that will be prized by wealthy collectors in other countries.... :rolleyes: :rlaugh: :D :D
     
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  19. 351CJ

    351CJ New Member

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    Gas prices were not the reason for the end of the 1960s muscle car era. In 1971 the average price of regular gas in the US was 35 cents / gallon and even in 1973 it was around 40 cents a gallon (about $1.25 in 2006 dollars) and on the eve of the Arab oil embargo in 1974 gas was under 50 cents a gallon.

    The reason why muscle cars died in 1971 were new emissions and safety regulations. 1960s muscle cars were a very small fraction of total vehicle sales so when the manufacturers had to scramble to meet new safety & emissions regulations it made no sense to spend scarce engineering resources on high performance cars. What the auto companys were selling in 1975 was already on the drawing boards in 1970.

    Fast forward to Sept 29, 2006. Thanks to computers and catalytic converters, manufacturers have no problem making 500 HP engines meet emissions requirements and those 500 HP engines get 2X to 3X the gas mileage that 400 HP muscle car engines from the 60s got. They've been dealing with safety requirements for the last 35 years so it's a non issue. Gas prices have dropped >25% in the last month. The gas price spike was driven by greed and fear, the gas price bubble has burst (for the time being at least).

    There will be high performance cars for many years. When the 2010 Boss Mustang arrives with a 500+ HP normally aspirated 6.2L V8, the Challenger & Camero will both be available with 500+ HP NA engines, the 2007 GT-500 will be just another out dated P0S. Although GT-500 owners and speculators who paid too much for their GT-500s will try their best to keep used GT-500 prices up, just like the stock market, real estate market and comodities market, the GT-500 market bubble will burst too. In the short term 5 - 15 years out, GT-500 values will tank. Eventually they will rebound in 20 years due to the novelty factor the GT-500 will have.
     
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  20. 351CJ

    351CJ New Member

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    Rick I agree with your analysis, except that any savy investor who can afford to ride out the stock market or real estate market over the long haul will be able to make at least 5% over inflation and as much as 8% over inflation.
    That means you are making the car investment look far better than it really is. I toally agree, investing in a new car at the peak of the buying frenzy for investment purposes is just plain foolish.
     
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