The reason people break the stock axles at near stock hp levels is because they set the car up to dead hook (with an associated bog) and something has to give.
If you are going to the track on sticky tires and afraid to launch at high rpm to induce some tire spin, then get 31splines.
If on the other hand you are willing to launch hard enough with a higher psi on those same sticky tires and work your way backwards thru the day to an optimal launch rpm and tire pressure hook/spin deal than the 28's will do you well.
I likely had over 300 passes on the stock 28splines launching between 5000-6250rpm with between 9.5-15psi in the tires. The wide spread in rpm and psi is due to track conditions. Once the car was dialed in the rears would roll over a couple feet than scratch hard for about 10-15 feet then hook... 1.69's-1.70's with 232hp in a 3200lb car.
If you are unwilling to put the time into seat time, learning to read the track and learning to read your car, then by all means overbuild to avoid the likely hood of track breakage.
I will not be dedicating that kind of commitment to my new combo, so I went with 31's and a Detroit.